Does Human Life Exist?

From Google Plus: "Science Fact; Acording to the Law of Probability!... Do you Think 4.55 Billions years is Enough For Human Kind To Evolved ... Give Data To Support It ... i will use your Model to win the Lottery..."

Here are my thoughts on why this essentially boils down to gamblers fallacy.
But let me put my thoughts down so you can see why I've come to this result.

Let's have a look at how I would build a probability of model of life occurring:

Does Life exist?

1, We have only one set of datum on which to compare our model that being that human life exists.
and so therefore we must declare that the probability of humans existing is extremely likely as we don't have another universe to observe for 14 billion years (and yes your 4.5 billion is wrong, I'll explain why in a moment)

2, We know that the universe exists. This fact can be tested and hopefully be declared as accurate. There are some that would posit that all existence is merely a dream etc, however, regardless of the metaphysical state of reality we can repeatedly observe, measure, test and base accurate predictions on what we know of the reality we have so until reality can be definitively proven not to exist let us take it that reality exists as it is right now.

3, We have through observation come to understand that this reality has existed in a historical sense for at least 14 billion years or so (the fractions are unimportant here) of which I seem to recall that some 13 billion years has had the universe developing planets.

4, It is hypothetically possible that any planet created has a chance of having life created, but we have only one measured instance of this (our own) there have been billions of planets that have existed, even before ours was formed. and even from empirical evidence there are currently billions of planets that exist. This detail is important later.

Can human life exist?

5, Probability suggests that at any given moment, and I mean in time scales smaller than would be sensible to measure, an event has an X chance of occurring. Where X represents a probability chance of a given event occurring. Our event to be measured is the occurrence of life (here represented as L). so we are attempting to find where X:1

I'me leaning on the occurrence of life being one of natural origin such as Abiogensis and I would see that the occurrence likelihood of such an event to be immeasurably small.

Limitation of event parameters: Where it can occur.

6, We know that X can hypothetically only occur on a planet, but we have already come to understand from point 4 there have been/there are billions of planets and so X now has to be multiplied by the number of planets (here represented as P) that ever existed so now we know that probability of life is at least X(P):1

Limitation of event parameters: When it can occur.

7, The scale of time in which the event can occur (lets call this T) is really quite immense. For example count how many 'moments' there are in a given second (rhetorical). The number of 'moments' that have ever come to pass probably surpasses comprehensible numbers in which I can express things.

There have been 14 billion years (and if you subscribe to the theory of multi-verse as I do, possibly hundreds of billions of years) or simply countless nearly infinite 'moments' at which X has had chance to occur.

Now we have that X(PT):1 is our given chance of life occurring

• X is a redundantly small number
• It is multiplied to the power of an extremely large number (P)
• It is then further exponentially multiplied by a number (T) which cannot even be quantified correctly.

I cannot even come to fathom the scale of this probability event but let us in sake of furthering my discussion point state that we arrive at a probability of 1:1,000,000. This suggests that in every million occurrences it is likely that it would happen at least once.

Gamblers Fallacy

Gamblers fallacy helpfully points out that even in something simple as a coin toss (a 1:2 probability event) it is entirely possible that if flipped a million times we may never see a 'heads' result which hypothetically should occur at least half a million times.

However the opposite is also true of Gamblers fallacy it could be that we see in a coin toss a million results of 'heads'. This is the fun thing about probability, the event outcome does not increase, or decrease its likely outcome based on previous event outcomes.

So even in a coin toss where we see one 'heads' and every other outcome is tails this adhere's to the fact that every event occurrence is 1:2

Back to life...

Back to our derived probability of life occurring, a 1:1,000,000 chance (or however large a scale you like to put in) states that at any moment life can start, and those moments have been flying by, probably several quadrillion moments have occurred while I've written this. Maybe more?

Quite frankly the scale of this now starts to confound and confuse me a little, we have a nearly infinite number of event occurrences in time with a nearly infinitely small likelihood of an event occurring.

Conclusion

I think I'll sum all of this long winded crap up by stating that I would see the probability of life as 1:1 or in terms that can be read by people: 100%.

I am happy to report that life does exist. If life did not exist, I'd have a hard time trying to explain all this. To perhaps alleviate this entire post of rhetorical nonsense, let us in stead observe from a simple top-down check.

1. life exists.

Q: Can life exist?
A: Yes.

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Addendum, I tried looking up some things to help express my thoughts, it didn't help. I found this excerpt from a 'probability over time' thread on www.physicsforums.com

"Or, you could define a metadistribution H(x) = w F(x) + (1-w) G(x) where 0 < w < 1 is a monotonic function of time."

I don't even understand what any of that means... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯